What Tariffs, Trade Wars & Neutering NATO means for Putin's trump card!
When playing a game of power, there are always two choices one may make. Either you may choose the option that advances your personal goals (ie. collecting points, moving forward…) or the choice that maximally harms your opponents (ie. stealing opponent’s cards, skipping their turn or playing a draw +2/+4 in a game of UNO…).
Essentially, you can either focus on winning or on preventing your opponents from winning.
And in a multipolar world (call it a multiplayer, infinite game for metaphor’s sake - ie. world politics), when you are losing terribly and stand no chance of winning (ie. Russia’s standing on the world stage since the collapse of the Soviet Union), the only chance you have of advancing your position and standing in the world is to bring everyone else down to your pathetic level.
How to cripple the West and reduce its success to ashes…?
If you were a has-been dictator on the world stage and wanted to boost your ego and relative power in the world, the fastest way to do this would be to unravel America's alliance with Europe and its allies - both economically and militarily.
To do so, it’s probably best to start with the military, ie. the guys with the guns…
Neutering NATO…
Security guarantees are based solely on trust. For years, NATO helped prevent nuclear escalation via the so-called “ mutually assured destruction,” that inevitably would have occurred if the Soviet Union or America had attacked one another - ie. all out nuclear war.
Because no one wins with nuclear war and fallout would have rendered the world uninhabitable (both have weapons aplenty to destroy the Earth a bajillion times over).
And it was this threat of violence as well as the member nations’ guarantees to respect and protect the sovereignty of their fellow members (should they be invaded) that largely contributed to the peace and prosperity the world (and esp. the West) has profited from since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The problem is… if there’s EVER any doubt in NATO’s (or America’s) commitment to protected fellow NATO members, and the whole thing comes crashing down.
Because bluffing doesn't work in poker if everyone knows you're bluffing.
And once a spouse has cheated on you, you can never really trust them again…
Which is exactly what happened with Trump's announcements and handling of Europe, Japan, Taiwan and its other NATO allies when he said only countries fulfilling military spending commitments could count on support.
This, combined with Trump and Vance’s mockery of Zelensky in the Oval Office, Vance’s derisive remarks about Europe and the US suddenly blaming Ukraine for starting the war… All of this made things blatantly clear that the United States was no longer automatically on the side of Europe or NATO.
And any guarantee or promise that's not a guarantee, but instead subject to whimsical changes or strategic reneging is no better than announcing a bluff…
Meaning that within just 70 mere days in office, NATO’s effectively been defanged and neutered and is no longer a collective force/
But the military’s not the only source of true power.
Crippling Western economies…
Let's do a thought experiment. If you were an economically-irrelevant dictator with an economy the size of Canada or Italy, how could you ever fight or hold your own with the major economic and political powerhouses of the West? You couldn't.
And nothing is worse or more infuriating than having rich neighbours. So if you can't build your own wealth, why not burn the billions of your enemies?
While state sponsored hackers have certainly been trying for years, cyber warfare and industrial espionage simply aren't enough to break the robust economies and supply chains of the West.
Outside of COVID & disrupted global trade, these are too complex and well managed for such simple tactics. The only possible disruption to such a worldwide infrastructure of mutually beneficial global trade would be…
TARIFFS
If you wanted to crater the world economy, the only way to effectively do it would be tariffs and splintering economic power houses in a world of scarcity. And if you can't make your people rich, making everyone else poor is your next best bet?
Sadly, pathetically pouty little dictators don't control trade and tariff rates of Western democracies.
How else to cripple one’s democratic foes…
If only there were a useful idiot readily available to implement such destructive policies.
If only Putin had a trump card…
That would be the ultimate Manchurian Candidate.
Just food for thought to explain Trump’s first 60 days in office…